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October 2022

October sales figures show more of the same:
Median closed sales price are $1,350,000 for the third month in a row (August, September, and October 2022):
Down 1% from October 2022 ($1,365,000) – this is the 1st time since 2019 that prices year over year have declined.
Down 22% from the peak closed sales price of $1,722,500 in April 2022.

 Interest rates continue to climb.
Climbing 3.83 points in the last year – 3.07% in October 2021 to 6.90% in October 2022
Climbing 1.49 points in the last quarter – 5.41% in July 2022 to 6.90% in October 2022
Climbing 0.79 points in the last month – 6.11% in September 2022 to 6.90% October 2022

New Pending sales are down from 39% month to date and 25% year to date:
655 properties (Oct 2021) to 401 (Oct 2022) – down 39%
7,718 (YTD Oct 2021) vs. 5,795 (YTD Oct 2022) – down 25%

Months’ Supply of Inventory is increasing and is 2.4 based on October 2022.

The closed median sale price has been $1,350,000 for the past three months. This is a 22% drop from the peak of $1,722,500 in April 2022. The monthly payment showed a similar decline dropping 19% from $9,226 ($1,722,500 @ 4.98%) in April 2022 to $7,430 ($1,350,000 @ 5.22%) in August 2022.

However, while the closed median price remained at $1,350,000, the 30-year interest rate rose from 5.22% (August 2022) to 6.11% (Sept 2022) to 6.90% (October 2022). The October payment at 6.90% is $8,891 and is only 4% off the peak payment of $9,226 in April 2022, even though the price has dropped 22%.

Two contributing factors:
Buyers are getting adjustable rate mortgages (5.90%) instead of 30-year fixed (6.90%).
“Adjustable-rate loans have gone from about 4 percent of the mortgage market in 2021 to more than 12 percent in the last several weeks, the highest share in more than a decade”, said Mike Fratantoni, the chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Sellers are unwilling to drop their price to fully offset the impact of increasing interest rates resulting in fewer sales (pending sales are off 39% for the month) and more active inventory relative to pending sales (months supply of inventory). Month supply of inventory has increased from 0.3 a year ago to 2.4.